01Start with same-period, fully loaded CAC
Customer acquisition cost is marketing spend plus sales spend divided by new customers acquired in that same period. Include media, content, agencies, acquisition software, fully loaded salaries and commissions. Do not include renewals or expansion accounts in the new-customer denominator.
A month of spend and a month of new customers is the convention here. If your sales cycle creates a lag, use a consistent trailing window in your own inputs. Allocate retention and expansion costs consistently rather than charging them to new-customer CAC while omitting them from customer economics. Zero new customers makes CAC unavailable; zero CAC makes the LTV:CAC ratio unavailable rather than zero or infinity.
CAC = same-period acquisition spend ÷ same-period new customers. A channel-level decision needs channel-level spend and customer counts, not only a blended average.
02Subscription LTV is a cohort series, not a flat expansion bonus
Monthly gross profit is ARPU multiplied by gross margin. In the subscription model, logo survival is (1 − churn) and surviving-account revenue grows by (1 + expansion). Their product is the expected revenue-retention factor for the next month.
With retention factor r below 1, undiscounted steady-state LTV is monthly gross profit ÷ (1 − r). With a compounded monthly discount rate d, discounted LTV is monthly gross profit × (1 + d) ÷ (1 + d − r), provided r is below 1 + d. Otherwise no finite steady-state answer exists, so the tool uses and labels the selected projection horizon.
- Average customer lifetime uses logo churn alone: 1 ÷ monthly churn.
- Expansion applies only to surviving accounts; it does not change logo survival.
- Revenue LTV and gross-profit LTV are shown separately so the margin adjustment stays visible.
03Use observed lifetime or repeat purchases when they fit better
The known-lifetime model multiplies flat monthly gross profit by the observed customer duration. It does not invent churn or expansion. The discounted view spreads that monthly value across the same finite lifetime.
The repeat-purchase model uses average order value × annual orders per customer × customer lifespan in years × gross margin. This keeps episodic purchases out of a subscription-churn formula. For monthly payback only, annual orders are spread evenly across twelve months; real purchase timing can differ.
04Three payback figures answer different questions
Simple payback is CAC divided by current monthly gross profit. Cohort-adjusted payback finds the fractional month when cumulative expected gross profit first covers CAC after retention, expansion and any finite-lifetime limit. Discounted-cohort payback applies the same crossing test to discounted gross profit.
Subscription payback searches up to 600 months independently of the shorter chart horizon. Known-lifetime and repeat-purchase payback must occur inside the entered lifetime. N/A means CAC is unavailable or the modeled gross profit does not recover it. Zero CAC has immediate zero-month payback, but still no meaningful LTV:CAC ratio.
05Target CAC and sensitivity are planning arithmetic
Maximum CAC at your target is displayed LTV divided by that target ratio. Break-even CAC uses a one-to-one ratio. Target monthly acquisition spend multiplies target CAC by the current new-customer count, holding conversion and customer quality constant only for the arithmetic.
Five scenarios compare the modeled path with 20% lower acquisition spend, 20% higher revenue or order value, an improved retention assumption, and a five-point higher gross margin. These are deterministic sensitivities, not predictions that a lever will preserve every other input.
Three to one and twelve-month payback are common reference conventions, not universal pass marks. Margin, overhead, cash constraints, sales motion and customer segment can justify different targets.
06Where the model stops
Constant churn, expansion and margin are simplifications. Early cohorts often behave differently from mature ones, and a short measurement window can make a long-tailed LTV estimate unstable. Annual prepayment, sales-cycle lag, channel mix and changing prices also alter actual cash recovery.
LTV:CAC excludes overhead and does not prove company profitability. A high ratio can coexist with a long payback or insufficient market size. Recalculate by cohort and channel, retain the source data behind churn and margin, and use a fuller cash-flow model for investment decisions.