01The five-year rule and the break-even math
Transaction costs dominate short holding periods. Between agent commissions, title, lender fees and moving, buying and later selling a home typically costs 8% to 10% of the price. On a $500,000 home that is $40,000 to $50,000 of friction that must be recovered by appreciation and principal paydown before buying pulls ahead.
That is why the break-even horizon usually lands between 4 and 7 years depending on the price-to-rent ratio. In high-ratio markets like coastal California, break-even can stretch past 10 years; in low-ratio markets like the Midwest, it can arrive in 3.
Quick screen: if the monthly rent is well below 0.5% of the purchase price (for example, $2,000 rent on a $500,000 home), renting has a strong mathematical head start.
02What renters actually keep
A renter's down payment does not disappear — it goes into a portfolio. At a 7% nominal return, $100,000 invested becomes about $197,000 in ten years. The renter also avoids maintenance (roughly 1% of value annually), insurance beyond a renters policy, and property taxes.
The catch is behavior. Renting only wins mathematically if the difference is genuinely invested rather than absorbed into lifestyle. This calculator assumes the down payment and any cash-flow savings are invested at your stated market return.
03The costs of owning that nobody quotes
Beyond principal and interest, owners carry property tax, homeowners insurance, maintenance and capital repairs. Budget 1% of value annually for maintenance on an older home; a roof, HVAC and water heater can easily consume three years of that reserve in a single stretch.
Ownership also has an opportunity cost on equity. Home equity is illiquid and typically appreciates at roughly the pace of incomes and inflation over long periods. Leverage amplifies the gain, but the return on the equity itself is usually lower than a diversified equity portfolio.
- Appreciation is not guaranteed and is highly local — zip code matters more than national averages.
- Selling costs (5%–6% commissions plus fees) come out of your proceeds.
- A 30-year fixed mortgage is a hedge against inflation; your payment stays flat while rents compound.
04Taxes, mortgage insurance and the sale
Three cash flows decide the answer more often than appreciation does, and most rent-versus-buy calculators quietly omit all three. The first is the tax treatment of ownership: itemised deductions have to beat the standard deduction before they are worth anything, the SALT deduction is capped, and only acquisition debt up to $750,000 qualifies for the interest deduction.
The second is private mortgage insurance. Put down less than 20% and you pay a monthly premium until the balance falls to 78% of the original value — the lender must cancel it at that point on request under the Homeowners Protection Act. On a $430,000 home with 10% down that is roughly four years of payments, and a calculator that charges PMI for the full 30 years silently overstates the cost of buying.
The third is the exit. Selling costs come out of your proceeds, and so does capital-gains tax on any gain above the exclusion — $250,000 for a single filer, $500,000 for a married couple who have lived there two of the last five years. Below those thresholds the gain is tax-free, which is the single most valuable tax break in the whole comparison.
- Renters insurance and a refundable security deposit are modelled, because neither disappears.
- Closing costs are charged once, on the way in; selling costs once, on the way out.
- Switch to today's-money to see the same result with inflation stripped out.
05When buying clearly wins
Buying pulls ahead when you plan to stay well past break-even, when rents are high relative to prices, when you can put down 20% and avoid mortgage insurance, and when the mortgage rate is below what a risk-free alternative yields.
It also wins on non-financial grounds: control over the property, no renewal risk, the ability to renovate, and a forced savings mechanism for households that would not otherwise invest the difference.